Friday morning thunder ahead? | MPR News

Our beautiful summery August weather pattern continues through Thursday. So let’s focus ahead a bit toward our next rain chances for Minnesota.

Another hot front will nudge toward southwest Minnesota Thursday night into Friday. Highs Friday will; push toward 100 degrees again in South Dakota and Nebraska. Highs Friday afternoon will nudge 90 again in southwest Minnesota.

Forecast high temperatures Friday.


But that steamy air mass will bump into relatively cooler air across Minnesota Thursday night and Friday morning. That’s a favorable environment for nocturnal thunderstorms to develop near the warm front Thursday night into early Friday.

NOAA’s GFS model grabs hold of the idea of a northwest to southeast oriented band of rain and thunder running from North Dakota through much of central Minnesota Thursday night into Friday morning. The loop below runs between 7 pm Thursday and 7 am Friday.

NOAA GFS model Thursday and Friday

NOAA GFS model between 7 pm Thursday and 7 am Friday .

NOAA via tropical tidbits

If the timing is correct on these storms, Friday morning’s rush hour could be wet and thundery in the greater Twin Cities area.

Rainfall potential

The European model is among those that lay out rainfall across much of north-central Minnesota southward through the greater Twin Cities area. Most forecast models as of today suggest the most favored zone for an inch of rainfall lies across north-central Minnesota.

Here’s the European model rainfall output through Friday.

European model (ECMWF) rainfall forecast

European model (ECMWF) rainfall forecast through Friday.

ECMWF via pivotal weather

So another soaking looks likely for parts of Minnesota. But in typical summer fashion, rainfall totals may vary over just a few miles. Right now these look mostly like garden-variety thunderstorms, with little severe weather risk.

Stay tuned.

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